Global temperatures and rising sea levels will force some Americans to relocate in the coming decades.
Heat waves in all states are projected to become more intense and global sea levels have already risen by eight inches since 1880 according to the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
But globalization expert and author Parag Khanna said the Great Lakes region, specifically Michigan as the anchor state, will thrive in the year 2050.
Khanna says geographies that are rich in freshwater, have a strong demographic industrial foundation, and are geopolitically stable are going to be the most desirable places to live. And these qualities apply to Michigan.
“It will have this renaissance as a result of climate change and people moving back to the region and new economic, kind of, drivers and foundations,” Khanna said.
In his book, Move: The Forces Uprooting Us, he explores the driving forces of migration over the next decades.
“People are going to resort themselves, they're going to revitalize towns and cities, and that is most definitely going to benefit a state like Michigan,” he said.
Khanna said the book’s inspiration came from his thoughts about how climate change and geopolitics would affect human geography.
“Where will people live? Where will they want to live? 10, 20, 30 years in the future? I got together with a colleague of mine, Greg Lindsay, and we started trying to hash out what could go right and what could go wrong in different places.”
One thing that could go wrong in Michigan is its ability to support a mass migration, climate expert Matthew Casale said. The state is already experiencing climate defects like more floods and storms and he says Michigan will need to have enough food and water to support new residents.
“Climate change has an impact on the water supply and there's a potential that increased flooding and all of that can lead to contaminated water supply,” Casale said. “I think it's true that the Great Lakes region and Michigan are among the places that are likely going to be most resilient to the impacts of climate change … even if that's true, the impacts of climate change will be felt in Michigan.”
In addition to flooding, the Midwest and Great Lakes region are subject to heat waves and droughts.
“So even if Michigan is more resilient than California or more resilient than Boston … the problem still stands. It is a worse quality of life than without climate change,” Casale said.
Due to amount of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, the world will continue to experience the impacts of global warming.
Casale says there is still an opportunity to prevent the worst of it if the world starts planning for a carbon-free society with urgency.
In Sep. 2020, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer issued an executive order for Michigan to join the U.S. Climate Alliance and cut more than a quarter of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.
By 2050, Michigan plans to reach carbon neutrality and to maintain it afterwards. Casale says plans for carbon neutrality will help relieve the pressure of climate defects.
“And over the next several decades, we can start to even out the climate again and get back to a place where we can preserve a healthy future for Michigan and for all of America,” Casale said.