Candidates in two of Michigan’s most contested statewide primary races will be debating this week.
Democrats running for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat will appear before a statewide TV audience on Tuesday for a debate hosted by Grand Rapids-based WOOD-TV.
Meanwhile, Republicans running in Michigan’s gubernatorial primary will debate on Wednesday for Fox 2 Detroit. Republicans will meet again on Thursday in Grand Rapids for another WOOD-TV gathering.
It’ll be the first time the Republicans will share a stage since the field narrowed to just Congressman John James (R, MI-10), businessman Perry Johnson, and former state Attorney General Mike Cox.
James has led polling from the beginning and has largely skipped out on chances to appear alongside his competition until this point. Last month, President Donald Trump endorsed James for the nomination.
Strategist Andrea Bitely said the combination may have put a target on his back.
“I expect John James to definitely be the punching bag for the other candidates,” Bitely said. “James now has Trump's endorsement, which is huge for him amongst the grassroots. But I am guessing that the other candidates will be throwing out punches to show that he is not as aligned with President Trump as they are.”
Up to this point, much of the discussion at Republican forums has highlighted the candidates’ alignment with Trump and his positions.
Bitely said she hopes they use this week’s debates as a chance to dig more into policy positions around issues like education and making it easier to run a business in the state.
On the Democratic side, what was once a tight three-person field is now down to two candidates. State Senator Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) left the race over the weekend, leaving things to Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D, MI-11) and former Wayne County health director Dr. Abdul El-Sayed.
Bitely said Stevens' and El-Sayed’s debate responses could be a “make or break” of sorts.
“If Abdul El-Sayed comes out and is a strong debater, which is what we assume will happen, this will be a help, no hurt for him. If Stevens bumbles any answer during this debate, it could actually hurt her more significantly,” she said.
With both candidates based in southeast Michigan, this will be a chance for them to prove themselves to the west side of the state and more rural areas.
So far, Stevens has carved a path as a moderate while campaigning hard to Black and working-class voters. Meanwhile, El-Sayed’s brand of progressive populism has surged in recent polls with the help of endorsements from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Both camps are fighting hard for the remnants of McMorrow’s coalition.
Michigan has historically been a purple state that has seen candidates flock to the center after winning their primary battles. Absentee ballots for Michigan’s August 4 election are already going out to voters.
For Republicans, Bitely said it may be time to start doing some math on the prospects of tying themselves to an unpopular president.
“You’ve got to decide if you can win with Trump sitting at 35% average approval rating across the country by leaning in on Trump's presidency, or if you're better off shifting at this point,” she said.
Bitely said she wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats eventually start moderating their message after the primary. But probably not yet.
“We’re going to see Abdul El-Sayed stay in that progressive path. And we're going to see Hayley Stevens stay in that more moderate path. There's no benefit for either of them to start the transition at this point,” Bitely said.
