LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Is there a new opportunity for negotiating an end to the U.S. war on Iran? To ask that, we turn to Karim Sadjadpour. He's an Iran expert and policy analyst at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace. Good morning and welcome back to the program.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Good morning, Leila. Great to be with you.
FADEL: So President Trump told CBS in "60 Minutes" he's not looking to escalate the war. What do you think led him to this position?
SADJADPOUR: Well, Leila, Trump is in a predicament in that obviously he knows that the American public, especially the Republican base, does want to end this war. But it's not as simple as simply ending the war. He needs to justify why he went to war, and that is to neutralize Iran's nuclear material and to leave some kind of a resolution, so Iran is not in control of the Strait of Hormuz. And the Iranians are not going to give him a quick victory. And so there's no great options for the president.
FADEL: I mean, also, can the president be trusted to be taken at his word, given that twice now he's attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations?
SADJADPOUR: Well, certainly, when you talk to people inside Iran, there's enormous anxiety that the war could recommence at any time. As you said, on two occasions, in the middle of negotiations, President Trump has attacked Iran. So I think Iranian officials are preparing for potential negotiations. They are also preparing for another round of war.
FADEL: How much leverage does Iran have right now? I mean, we've seen Iran kind of taking credit for Republican losses in the midterm election because they choked off the Strait of Hormuz and pushed up gas and diesel prices.
SADJADPOUR: Well, Iran feels very proud now, very vindicated that it's managed to cause this electoral defeat for President Trump. But Iran is also suffering a lot as a result of this ongoing naval blockade. According to some estimates, they're losing as much as $500 million daily not being able to really export their oil, but they've shown themselves willing to subject their population to enormous hardship. And again, this mistrust between the United States and Iran is just very difficult to bridge. Iran wants to see American concessions upfront, and the United States says, we're not going to give you anything unless, you know, you first make some meaningful nuclear concession.
FADEL: Mentioned the economic hardship. I mean, it's regular people having to live through that. What are you hearing from your contacts inside Iran?
SADJADPOUR: As I said, there's enormous anxiety that their lives are just - it's very difficult to prepare when you think war could recommence at any time. The inflation - it increases almost day by day for people. We're talking about, in some cases, triple-digit inflation when it comes to food - 70% inflation overall. And so people really want to see an end to this war. They want to just be able to continue normal lives. But, you know, that has never been the priority of this Iranian regime - the economic welfare of its people. And it's a regime really bent for, you know, avenging the humiliation and the killing of their supreme leader several months ago.
FADEL: So this economic hardship that people are living through is not a pressure point that will work on the Iranian leadership?
SADJADPOUR: You know, Leila, at some point, it's not sustainable for the Iranian government to be under this kind of naval blockade. And the question we keep asking is, you know, who is going to blink first. For the United States, this is also costly to have these naval escorts, you know, facilitating traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That's costing the American taxpayer perhaps a billion dollars per month. For Iran, it's also costly. And you have two parties who are really - not really thinking foremost about the national interests of their country.
FADEL: Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. As always, thank you for your time and insights.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
