A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
William Taylor has been listening along with us. He served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. Ambassador, so I know no major breakthroughs, but a prisoner swap. So is this an accomplishment, nonetheless?
WILLIAM TAYLOR: Not that great, A. Of course, it's good to have prisoners come back. That's always a good thing. But what they're really after is ending the war. They want a ceasefire. And they apparently made no progress toward that.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. Now, one of the biggest sticking points in these negotiations is the role of Europe, or what role Europe may play in all of this going forward. Moscow doesn't want Europe involved. Meanwhile Europe is focusing on protecting the continent from Russian aggression, any future Russian aggression. So in your view, should Europe be involved somehow in these direct talks?
TAYLOR: Absolutely. Absolutely. Not only indirectly, they should be directly there. They should be at the table. As you say, this is about European security. But it's first about supporting Ukraine and allowing them to prevail. And the Europeans have been there, more so now, A, than the Americans. So the Europeans should definitely be there. They have a lot at stake, and they're a strong supporter of Ukraine.
MARTÍNEZ: If European involvement, though, is something Vladimir Putin draws a line in the sand on, how does that happen then?
TAYLOR: Then the Ukrainians say no. The Ukrainians say, no, we don't have the conversation unless the Europeans are there. And the Americans are also there. The U.S. position is Europeans need to be there. That will be the message, the combined message, to the Russians.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. It sounds like Jared Kushner has an almost impossible task here, doing something that I think he wants to do but Vladimir Putin obviously doesn't, to bring Europe in these talks.
TAYLOR: So Kushner and Witkoff have a flawed way of thinking about these negotiations. They think that if they just offer suggestions or offerings or carrots or gifts to Putin, he'll come around to their point of view. That's wrong, A. As you know, Putin responds to strength, not to gifts. And so that's not going to get them anywhere.
MARTÍNEZ: But strength, that could be something that is dangerous to the world, isn't it? Showing a force of strength to Vladimir Putin sounds like it could be dangerous to everyone.
TAYLOR: It's going to be dangerous to the Russians if they continue. The Russians know - Putin knows that if he lashes out at anybody in NATO, it's curtains for him. There is no way that the Russians are going to go after NATO. So NATO needs to be strong, Europeans need to be strong, Ukrainians are strong and the U.S. should be supportive.
MARTÍNEZ: Ambassador, I remember back in 2022, Vladimir Putin expected this so-called special military operation to last anywhere from three to 10 days, or weeks at worst. Come February, it'll be five years. What are the chances that Vladimir Putin can be convinced that maybe he cannot win this war?
TAYLOR: He's going to come to that conclusion, A. I'm convinced. He sees the refineries that are burning in his country. The Ukrainians are going deep after them. I don't know if his generals are telling him, but he's losing 50,000 troops in a month. That can't go on. You know, when Putin understands that, he will figure this out. The U.S. elections, A, are going to be a message to him that says the U.S. is supportive of Ukraine. Three percent of Americans support Russia. This is going to become clear to him that he cannot win this.
MARTÍNEZ: You think he will arrive to that conclusion, or someone has to pressure him or convince him to arrive there?
TAYLOR: I think someone has to pressure him to convince him. The Ukrainians are doing that on the battlefield. John Ratcliffe, you recall, the head of the CIA, went to Moscow to try to tell Putin this. Putin wouldn't listen, but he's hearing it from his generals.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. William Taylor is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, now with the Atlantic Council. Ambassador, thank you very much.
TAYLOR: Thank you, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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