Michigan could experience a milder and drier fall and winter as El Niño conditions develop in the Pacific Ocean, according to Michigan State University climatologist Jeff Andresen.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon can influence weather patterns around the globe, including across the Great Lakes region.
Andresen said seasonal outlooks point to above-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States through the fall and winter months.
"The message is milder than normal conditions for the remainder of the fall, and certainly for the winter season, and again, El Nino has quite a bit to do with that across most of the northern U.S.," Andresen said during MSU Extension Field Crops Virtual Breakfast.
According to Andresen, the weather pattern associated with El Niño typically brings warmer and drier conditions to Michigan during the latter part of winter.
He said historical data also suggest the state could see lower snowfall totals than normal.
While the longer-range outlook favors warmer and drier weather, Andresen noted southern Michigan could see periods of active weather and heavy rainfall in the near term before the seasonal pattern becomes more established.
"For us, generally milder and drier is the theme," Andresen said.
The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks extend through fall 2027, but Andresen said the strongest signal for Michigan in the coming months remains a tendency toward warmer-than-normal temperatures and reduced snowfall compared with a typical winter.