Election Day is a little more than a week away.
More than a million Michiganders have already cast their ballots so far, but that's not stopping the deluge of ads, campaign stops and ongoing political chaos.
Former President Barack Obama campaigned with Democrats in Detroit on Saturday, and President Donald Trump rallied Republicans in Port Huron Sunday.
This week, more campaign surrogates will be flying in including Senator Bernie Sanders and Vice President JD Vance.
Even former Michigan Governor Rick Snyder is jumping into the fray on a bus tour to support Republicans running for state Legislature seats.
"People seem to see Rick Snyder as somebody who is not a MAGA Republican, so that makes a bit of a difference," said statewide political correspondent Russ McNamara. "If you're trying to achieve that tone as a non-MAGA Republican, especially where President Trump is currently very unpopular nationwide and in the state of Michigan, then he'd be the right surrogate to do it."
When it comes to the concept of an "October surprise," a piece of news that shocks campaigns and races in the final weeks before the election, McNamara says the people he's talked to, from analysts to politicians, are more worried about what comes after the election.
"What that looks like, nobody's, you know, completely certain," he said.
"Obviously we go back to January 6, 2021, and that's kind of always in the back of everyone's mind when there is an election outcome that does not favor President Trump."
The Trump administration's Department of Justice is sending election monitors to watch polls in seven Michigan communities on Election Day.
Monitors are a part of the typical voting process, and state elections and law enforcement leaders have said they will ensure there's no interference when Michiganders go to cast their ballots and that their votes will be secure after.
While there are ongoing questions about the reliability of polls to predict election results, there's just as much uncertainty when it comes to projecting voter turnout.
McNamara says Michigan's no-reason absentee voting system and early in-person voting periods are still relatively new, so it's hard to forecast trends.
He adds there may be other reasons people are changing up the way they vote.
"I've talked with people that are concerned about the post office and maybe some meddling from the federal level, and they're not going to mail in their ballot. They're going to drop it off, or they are going to vote in person this time around," McNamara said.
Early in-person voting runs through Monday, November 2, though individual municipalities may offer different hours of availability.
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Interview Transcript
Sophia Saliby: We're in the home stretch of campaign season with Election Day coming up next week.
More than a million Michiganders have already cast their ballots so far, but that's not stopping the deluge of ads, campaign stops and political chaos.
Statewide political correspondent Russ McNamara joins me to break it all down. Thanks for being here.
Russ McNamara: Hi, Sophia.
Saliby: So, Russ, where are you headed this week? Because I know there are events happening literally all over the state. Sometimes all over the state in just one day.
McNamara: Oh yeah. And right now, we have Vice President JD Vance flying into Howell. The event's literally at the airport on Tuesday, so that is on the agenda so far. But I'm sure something will pop up later in the week.
I mean, we had former President Obama in Detroit on Saturday. We had President Trump in Port Huron on Sunday. Those are the two big gets for each candidate.
So, now it's time for various surrogates, Bernie Sanders has been in Michigan a lot over the last few days, and more will be coming in over the next week. I mean, we're just about a week out mercifully from the Election Day.
Saliby: Yes, and one interesting surrogate jumping in for the first time this election cycle is former Governor Rick Snyder.
He's doing a bus tour this week, supporting Republicans running for the State Legislature, either incumbents or newcomers. Was that expected?
McNamara: Not, not expected. I mean, he's been slowly working his way into the conversation. He'll pop up and get mentions in Detroit News op-eds.
People seem to see Rick Snyder as somebody who is not a MAGA Republican, so that makes a bit of a difference. And if you're trying to achieve that tone as a non-MAGA Republican, especially where President Trump is currently very unpopular nationwide and in the state of Michigan, then he'd be the right surrogate to do it because, you know, he can take you back to the time where, you know, he's just a nerd and he wants to be good for government, and he might be able to strike the right tone.
I don't know how much he's going to fire up the Republican base at this point, but I mean it's definitely worth a shot.
Saliby: Especially since these are down-ballot state legislature races, not these big top-of-the-ticket ones.
You know, oftentimes there's what's known as the "October surprise," some big news that shakes up campaigns and races in these last few weeks before the election.
Did we get an "October surprise" this year, or should we just wait a few more days for this month to end, where things could change?
McNamara: Well, I'll be honest, talking with various people, political observers, politicians, they're more worried about a "November surprise," something that might happen post-election. What that looks like, nobody's, you know, completely certain. You know, obviously we go back to January 6, 2021, and that's kind of always in the back of everyone's mind when there is an election outcome that does not favor President Trump.
Now, he's not on the ballot this time, but also there's a whole bunch of races that could affect the balance of power, and people are concerned. People are concerned about, you know, what might happen.
We know that there will be election observers in cities at polling places across Michigan and across the country on Election Day, how much pull they have, we're not exactly sure. However, something might happen post-election if the results do not favor what President Trump wants.
Saliby: Well, we'll be watching out for that. What do we know about turnout numbers? There's absentee ballots out, and early voting started statewide.
Is there a way to divine what's going to happen on Election Day?
McNamara: I don't know. Things are still fairly new because everybody's getting used to the idea of mail-in voting. So, some people prefer that. Some do not. So, are you know mail-in ballots being turned in at a normal pace? Are they a little bit slower?
I know I've talked with people that are concerned about the post office and maybe some meddling from the federal level, and they're not going to mail in their ballot. They're going to drop it off, or they are going to vote in person this time around because there are some of those lingering concerns that something will be done to prevent those mail-in votes from being counted. So, I don't know how much you can glean.
Now I do have to say that early voting in the state of Michigan is up, but that's just two days of early voting that we have the numbers for so far. But is that indicative of some sort of trend? I don't know. It's too early to tell, I guess.
Saliby: Russ McNamara is our statewide political correspondent. Thank you for joining us.
McNamara: Thanks a lot. Appreciate it, Sophia.
This conversation has been edited for clarity and conciseness.
