Polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday, November 3 for Election Day, and Michiganders will soon know who will leading the state next and representing them in Washington D.C. starting next year.
More than 2.3 million Michigan voters have cast their ballot so far at around a 31% turnout rate, which has outpaced previous midterm elections.
The so-called "October surprise" of the campaign season seemed to come down on November 1 with Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens reversing course on her endorsement of her primary rival for U.S. Senate Abdul El-Sayed and instead backing Republican nominee Mike Rogers.
Statewide political correspondent Russ McNamara doubts the move will sway many voters this late in the election cycle.
"If Haley Stevens was on the level of maybe Governor Gretchen Whitmer, that high level of politician, that name recognition, that approval rating, maybe, but she's not," he said.
McNamara will be at the State GOP watch party in Detroit after polls close on Tuesday.
"Republicans definitely want people out there voting because there is an enthusiasm gap between themselves and Democrats."
But he says both parties are striking a similar message at the 11th hour of the campaign beyond just getting out the vote.
"Donald Trump has been telling Republicans to vote like he is on the ballot. Democrats have been telling their people, vote like Donald Trump is on the ballot," McNamara said.
Polls close at 8 p.m. across much of the state, but results are not expected immediately to come in. Election workers must process ballots before results are transferred physically from precincts to county clerk's offices where they are then verified.
During the August primary, the Democratic race for U.S. Senate wasn't settled until the morning the following day, so voters and pundits may need to remain patient to see how some of the closer races turn out.
Interview Transcript
Sophia Saliby: We're here finally. Election Day is tomorrow, and after months of tough and tense campaigns, we'll finally know who will be leading our state next and representing Michiganders in Washington D.C.
We have statewide political correspondent Russ McNamara with us for one last time before the Election. How's it going, Russ?
Russ McNamara: It's going great.
Saliby: The big news out of the weekend is Democratic Representative Haley Stevens backing out of her endorsement of her primary opponent for the U.S. Senate race, that's Abdul El-Sayed in favor of Republican Mike Rogers.
I don't really want to get into the details because I think it's seen a lot of coverage both yesterday and today. But do you feel like this switch up will have a lot of bearing on the Senate race in the end?
McNamara: No, in fact, it might have the opposite effect. Abdul El-Sayed raised $2.4 million yesterday after all of this came out. So, between that and 2.3 million Michiganders having already voted in this one, I don't know. I don't see it swaying.
If Haley Stevens was on the level of maybe Governor Gretchen Whitmer, that high level of politician, that name recognition, that approval rating, maybe, but she's not.
Saliby: So, moving on to Election Day and Election Night, you'll be with state Republicans in Detroit once polls close. Who's expected to be at that event?
McNamara: The big four, basically. Mike Rogers. We'll have John James. We'll have Anthony Forlini, and Doug Lloyd. So, that is the top of your ticket.
It's going to be interesting to see how the evening plays out obviously if you look at polling, Mike Rogers and Abdul El-Sayed are the closest, and not so much for the rest of the ticket at this point. Although we can always see a shakeup on the lower end, either in Secretary of State's race or when it comes to Attorney General, just because the name recognition isn't quite as high. People know who Jocelyn Benson is. People know who John James is. So, that certainly helps.
But we'll know pretty early on how things are shaking out. And of course, some of the results from more rural districts come in faster, and that could skew towards Republican candidates. So, you might go to bed with Republicans, you know, still leading, you know, in the evening, and then wake up to something completely different.
Saliby: Yeah, that was going to be my next question. You know, a lot of people want to know when they'll know. Is it going to be a late night? You know, we saw the primary for the Democrats for that Senate seat go into the morning hours for a race call.
Can we expect that across the board? We don't know what time, but is it going to be before midnight, after midnight, 8 o'clock the next morning?
McNamara: Right. I think the Senate race will be probably be the closest, so that one might take a little bit longer. The gubernatorial race, if you follow the polling, that one will likely be earlier.
A couple of numbers, people I've talked to said that if you want to look at a baseline of where Mike Rogers should be, like around midnight, if he is around 3% that bodes very well for him. If he's, you know, not leading by that much, or potentially even trailing by less than 3% at midnight, that bodes very poorly for him, and that would lean closer to there being a race call, if not by the AP or some other news agency.
Saliby: What has been the final message to voters for some of the candidates you've been following? I think probably the main message is to get out the vote.
McNamara: Yeah, absolutely. Because Republicans definitely want people out there voting because there is an enthusiasm gap between themselves and Democrats. Democrats, it's a midterm election; they're more fired up to vote. And Donald Trump has been telling Republicans to vote like he is on the ballot. Democrats have been telling their people, vote like Donald Trump is on the ballot.
So, both sides similar messaging, but for different reasons because Republicans have not fared quite as well in midterm races because of Donald Trump's unpopularity, high cost of gas, high cost of groceries and Donald Trump's approval rating is at historically low levels. So, that bodes poorly for Republicans. But of course, if more Republicans decide to show up, then that could change the calculus a little bit.
Saliby: Speaking of getting out the vote, turnout so far has been outpacing previous midterm elections. Do we think we're going to see record turnout when all the ballots are counted?
McNamara: I think so. It's going to be pretty close for a midterm election in some places. Dearborn, especially Hamtramck, Detroit is doing very well for a midterm year. But Dearborn and Hamtramck outpacing what it was two years ago, that would seemingly bode very well for Democrats and especially Abdul El-Sayed, getting people to turn out there.
People are fired up to vote in rural parts of the state as well, northern Michigan, the Upper Peninsula, they're expecting turnout to be pretty brisk, as well. Not necessarily for mail-in ballots, but especially day of voting.
Saliby: Russ McNamara is our statewide political correspondent. He'll be joining us during our live election night coverage, which runs from 8 p.m. to midnight tomorrow on WKAE. Thanks for being here, Russ.
McNamara: Thanks, Sophia.
This conversation has been edited for clarity and conciseness.
