Michigan was a part of the nationwide 'blue wave' on Election Night that saw Democrats picking up long-held Republican seats.
The State Democratic Party now has a trifecta in state government after Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's win in her gubernatorial bid, flips in the state House and a strengthening of its majority in the state Senate.
This could mean big changes at all levels of government for Michiganders. Political scientist Matt Grossmann directs the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. He says it's not immediately clear what priorities Democrats will take on in the new year, unlike their trifecta that started in 2023.
That session saw massive reforms on gun control and reproductive rights and some repeals of policies put in by Republicans in past legislatures.
"This time it's a little more open season. Of course, there were a lot of bills that they didn't get over the finish line at the end of their last trifecta, but that's probably not going to be headline agenda items," he said.
He also points out Benson ran on a platform tied her experience as an administrator, not a legislator as opposed to her predecessor Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
"She did select Winnie Brinks as her lieutenant governor, in part to beef up the legislative role of the the governor's office, so she'll definitely have a partner to move forward with the Democratic trifecta," Grossmann said. "But it's a little more open than than previous administrations have been."
The big national headline of the night from Michigan is Democrat Abdul El-Sayed's win in his bid for U.S. Senate He'll be the country's first Muslim senator.
"He won by looks like six or seven, and that's a large win in any year in a swing state. On the other hand, he did underperform the governor and the state House vote and some other indicators of baseline Democratic support, but there just wasn't a whole lot of crossover voting in general," Grossmann explained.
Grossmann says the disparity between results for Benson and El-Sayed could be attributed to moderate and Independent voters who didn't resonate with El-Sayed's progressive campaign in addition to Islamophobia and a mistrust of Muslim candidates.
But neither issue pulled enough Democratic voters away, and El-Sayed may have also brought in younger voters to his party's slate of candidates.
The state Legislature's lame duck session has now begun before newly elected candidates are sworn in at the beginning of 2027.
Interview Transcript
Sophia Saliby: Michigan was a part of the nationwide 'blue wave' on Election Night that saw Democrats picking up long-held Republican seats.
This could mean big changes at all levels of government for Michiganders. Here to break down some of these results is political scientist Matt Grossmann. He directs the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. Thanks for joining us after a long night.
Matt Grossmann: Thank you.
Saliby: What's your initial reaction to this "blue tsunami?" Was this in your predictions for the night?
Grossmann: This was bigger than expected when there were almost no bright spots for Republicans. Where they did better than expected and several surprises in favor of Democrats, including, you know, winning Senate races in places like South Carolina and Kansas.
Saliby: And what district flips in Michigan are sticking out most to you? This was happening on a congressional level, but also state House, state Senate.
Grossmann: Democrats basically won every competitive swing House seat getting up to looks like 63, which is equivalent to what the Republicans had after the 2010 wave in Michigan, and they extended control in the the Senate, picked up seats there as well.
So, it was statewide. They also won all of the statewide races by fairly comfortable margins in the end.
Saliby: The big national headline out of the night for Michigan is Democrat Abdul El-Sayed now heading to the Senate. He will be the nation's first Muslim senator.
How did he perform among voters statewide? This race wasn't as close as Senator Elissa Slotkin's run against Mike Rogers two years ago.
Grossmann: Yeah, on the one hand, he won by looks like six or seven, and that's a large win in any year in a swing state. On the other hand, he did underperform the governor and the state House vote and some other indicators of baseline Democratic support, but there just wasn't a whole lot of crossover voting in general. There seems to have been mostly people voting Democrats down the line.
The other positive sign is that it looks like he was partially responsible for bringing out more young voters than usual in a midterm election, so he also may have helped some of the other Democratic candidates in that respect.
Saliby: Is there a way to attribute that underperforming compared to Governor-elect Jocelyn Benson?
Grossmann: Well, in the pre-election polling, there were several factors that that mattered to that disparity. One was people who viewed themselves as independents or moderates, and another was Islamophobia basically, people who had negative opinions of Muslims.
So, both of those may have played a role, but here just wasn't a lot of distance between those two candidates or really any of the Democratic candidates. So, whatever qualms mainly Democratic voters had about El-Sayed, they seemed to get over them.
Saliby: There's been speculation that if Democrats got the trifecta, that's running the executive branch, both chambers of the state Legislature, which is what they did, Republican leaders in the state House may be more willing to negotiate during this lame duck session to get some of their priorities done. Do you expect that will happen?
Grossmann: Well, Democrats don't have a lot of incentive to not just wait for their full control, especially because it looks like they'll have seats to spare and really be able to not necessarily rely on having every one of their ducks in order, like they had to the last time they had power. So, Republicans may be more willing, but I don't know if they'll have Democratic partners to make that happen.
Saliby: You know, this trifecta will be helmed by a new governor Jocelyn Benson. What kinds of priorities do you expect them to take on? Last time, the last trifecta, it was gun restrictions. It was reproductive rights. Is there a sense of what will be the focus these next two years in in Michigan?
Grossmann: The agenda is not as obvious as last time because last time it was the, you know, first trifecta in a long time, and so they had a long list of things they wanted to overturn from previous Republican legislatures, this time, it's a little more open season. Of course, there were a lot of bills that they didn't get over the finish line at the end of their last trifecta, but that's probably not going to be headline agenda items.
The other unique feature here is that Jocelyn Benson actually said that what distinguished her from Gretchen Whitmer was that she was focused on administration and policy implementation, and really didn't necessarily emphasize a legislative agenda.
But then she did select Winnie Brinks as her lieutenant governor, in part to beef up the legislative role of the the governor's office, so she'll definitely have a partner to move forward with the Democratic trifecta. But it's a little more open than than previous administrations have been.
Saliby: Matt Grossmann is a political scientist and the director of IPPSR at MSU. Thank you for joining me.
Grossmann: Thank you.
