Severe weather season in Michigan is approaching, and this year could see more action than usual.
This is due to the switch in climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that affect weather in the United States, said Ryan Harriott, president and founder of Michigan Storm Chasers.
The organization provides forecasts, and storm chasing coverage during severe weather events in the state.
Harriott said this year, climate patterns known as ENSO, are switching from La Niña, which brings cooler air, to the neutral phase, to El Niño, which brings warmer air.
ENSO is a measure of the surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. When those water temperatures are warmer-than-average, that indicates an El Niño, while cooler-than-average temperatures indicate a La Niña.
“When they are neither warmer nor colder, they're more average in nature," he said. "That's what we call...the neutral phase.”
Based on historical data, when Michigan sees a "switch" from patterns, the state tends to see more severe weather, he said.
"We had 10 years that were in the neutral phase that had more than 15 tornadoes," Harriott said. "And the second most active pattern is a weak El Nino, which is where we're heading.”
He said he predicts that Michigan will see around 15 to 25 tornadoes this year. The average number of tornadoes the state sees in a year is around 12.
Tornadoes can happen all 12 months of the year, but the months where the state sees the most action are May, June, July and August, he said.
It's not just tornadoes people have to pay attention to. Derechos, lines of severe thunderstorms that bring strong, destructive winds, also can strike Michigan, he said.
"We have one derecho, big wind storms that come through every year or two," he said. "And those can contain winds upwards of 80 to 100 miles per hour, in some cases more than that."
It's important for people to take severe weather alerts seriously and have a plan, he said.
"There's an old saying in weather or meteorology and in general," Harriott said. "When people get complacent, it's when you least expect it, it will happen to you."
It also isn't wise to assume that a storm will be weak. Although many of Michigan's tornadoes are weaker, such as EF-0 to EF-1, there are exceptions—including the EF-2, nearly EF-3 tornado that injured 20 people in Portage, Michigan, in 2024, he said.
An EF-3 struck Gaylord, Michigan, in 2022, killing two people and injuring more than 40.
He advised residents to have multiple ways to receive warnings, including cellphone alerts and a weather radio.