With the Big Ten Tournament underway and Selection Sunday ahead, you may be getting ready to fill out your March Madness Bracket.
Michigan State University faculty member and director of the Actuarial Science Program Albert Cohen studies sports analytics and says luck actually factors into a bracket win or bust more than you'd think.
"The ball can bounce the wrong way, especially towards the end of the game. There's a lot of chaos that happens that can affect the final outcome,"he said.
Cohen doesn't personally fill out brackets for the NCAA tournament. He prefers to just root for Michigan State.
But he has these tips:
"Don't get too emotionally attached to them," he said. "If your bracket does survive a couple days, make sure to tell your friends about it. Don't get mad when they tease you when it eventually does bust."
He also suggests going backwards from the Final Four to the initial games instead of starting with the first round to make predictions.
"I think if you look at last year's Final Four, the neat thing is that all four were number one seeds, and all three games in the Final Four were come-from-behind wins," he explained. "So, if you're more comfortable picking what the Final Four would look like, then maybe working backwards to see the path that those teams took to get there."
Michigan State plays its first game of the Big Ten Tournament Friday, March 13, at 9 p.m. in Chicago.
The NCAA men's tournament bracket will be revealed Sunday, March 15, at 6 p.m. on CBS. The women's bracket will come out later that day at 8 p.m. on ESPN.
Interview Highlights
On expert opinions on bracketology
I think there are people that spend a lot of time thinking about matchups ...There's a lot of in-game analytics, and there's a lot of luck during the game. The ball can bounce the wrong way, especially towards the end of the game. There's a lot of chaos that happens that can affect the final outcome.
On mitigating the emotional factor of picking brackets
I think that a lot of times, people fill out their brackets going forward and, correct me if I'm wrong, where they'll look at the opening weekend, and they'll look at the first round, and they'll try to select those games, and then go forward. I think if you look at last year's Final Four, the neat thing is that all four were number one seeds, and all three games in the Final Four were come-from-behind wins. So, if you're more comfortable picking what the Final Four would look like, then maybe working backwards to see the path that those teams took to get there.
On his tips for filling out brackets
Don't get too emotionally attached to them. You know, just it's one of those things that's kind of low risk, high reward. If your bracket does survive a couple days, make sure to tell your friends about it. Don't get mad when they tease you when it eventually does bust.
Interview Transcript
Sophia Saliby: With the Big Ten Tournament underway and Selection Sunday ahead, you may be getting ready to fill out your March Madness Bracket.
Michigan State University faculty member Albert Cohen studies sports analytics and joins us now to break down just how much luck actually factors into a bracket win or bust.
Thank you for joining us.
Albert Cohen: Pleasure to be here.
Saliby: It sounds like bracketology brings together statistics, psychology and just a lot of luck here. How much of that can we actually control?
Cohen: Very little, if anything. It's one of those things that's a human endeavor. Just like Tetris, we think that we're going to control the next piece that drops, and we're going to place it in just the right slot, and when that wrong piece comes, we get upset.
It's the same thing with March Madness. We had everything right until that one Cinderella team busted our bracket. And that's part of the human endeavor, and I think we're kind of secretly enjoying that frustration a little bit.
Saliby: Are there truly experts then that you can trust when it comes to predicting the outcome of the tournament?
Cohen: I think there are people that spend a lot of time thinking about matchups and thinking about specific matchups that have been seeded that maybe an A-team facing a nine team, the nine team actually is a really good matchup against the A team, and they've got a better chance than maybe the rankings say.
There's a lot of in-game analytics, and there's a lot of luck during the game. The ball can bounce the wrong way, especially towards the end of the game. There's a lot of chaos that happens that can affect the final outcome. So, short answer is, yes, I think there are a lot of people that spend time thinking about it, but it's a complex endeavor.
Saliby: You've also researched how emotion can play a role in making bracket choices. Could that be how I might place Michigan State University farther along in the tournament than they might realistically go because of my connection to the school?
Cohen: No question. I mean, the work we've done in emotion and insurance buying shows us that people are upset when they buy premiums that maybe aren't used in the end, and this is sort of the connection with insurance.
Certainly, I'm a Michigan State University fan till the end, and I have a good feeling this year that they're going to go far. But again, we can't control the in-game chaos that can happen, especially towards the end. So, yes, I think having a little bit of emotion is what keeps us glued to our televisions, but sometimes it does cloud our judgment and our decision making.
Saliby: So, how can we mitigate the emotions, like, I don't like this school, I love this school to make smarter choices to you know, ultimately, make a great bracket?
Cohen: One of the things that I do in quantitative finance is, when you've got a contract and you've got the known payoff, you work backwards recursively to figure out what the price should be today. And I think that a lot of times, people fill out their brackets going forward and correct me if I'm wrong, where they'll look at the opening weekend, and they'll look at the first round, and they'll try to select those games, and then go forward.
I think if you look at last year's Final Four, the neat thing is that all four were number one seeds, and all three games in the Final Four were come from behind wins. So, if you're more comfortable picking what the Final Four would look like, then maybe working backwards to see the path that those teams took to get there.
And the other thing I should mention is that I can't think of a tournament, maybe the 2010 World Cup, as an exception, but in general, I can't think of many tournaments where the eventual winner didn't overcome some sort of near loss, like an overwhelming favorite has as a team that's a Cinderella that almost beats them, that's pretty common.
So, don't be afraid to have your bracket busted early, because even if you do pick the eventual winner correctly, the path it took there could be quite thorny.
Saliby: You've written about how this isn't just a coin flip or like a 50-50, this is like 50-50s on 50-50s. I haven't taken math in years, but something like statistically impossible to predict every game.
Cohen: I think we've gotten brackets that have lasted to maybe the second or the third round, but yeah, I don't think in my lifetime I'll ever see a perfect bracket. Could be wrong, but it's quite rare.
Saliby: So, I have to ask, as we end our conversation, how do you fill out your March Madness bracket?
Cohen: Don't be mad, but I don't. I'm actually very risk averse. I am not a gambling fan or a bracket fan, and I don't. I'm just going to follow Michigan State and push for them to go really far. But, yeah, I haven't filled out a bracket I don't think ever. I can't remember, maybe, I can't remember.
Saliby: And do you have tips for people who are filling out brackets?
Cohen: Don't get too emotionally attached to them. You know, just it's one of those things that's kind of low risk, high reward. If your bracket does survive a couple days, make sure to tell your friends about it. Don't get mad when they tease you when it eventually does bust.
Saliby: Albert Cohen is a Michigan State University faculty member. Thank you for joining us.
Cohen: My pleasure. Thank you.
This conversation has been edited for clarity and conciseness.
