SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
During the Fourth of July picnic on the White House lawn, President Trump signed his Big Beautiful Bill into law yesterday.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's never happened before. It's the biggest bill of its type in history. We've never had anything like that before. Nothing like that they thought would be possible to get passed.
SIMON: NPR senior contributor Ron Elving joins us. Ron, thanks for being with us.
RON ELVING, BYLINE: Good to be with you, Scott.
SIMON: And it's really a big bill - tax breaks, Medicaid cuts, billions for border security. Where do you think we'll see the most effect?
ELVING: In dollar terms, this is a tax cut extension, and it benefits the people who got the most from the tax cuts Trump put through in his first term. It adds trillions to the national debt over the life of the bill. That was an outrage for many Republican members of Congress - House and Senate - but they swallowed it, even those who swore they would not. And in the end, there were just two in the House who were willing to defy Trump and his activist supporters.
As for effects, the tax cuts are front-loaded. That means that people who benefit will benefit soon. But down the road, changes are in store for Medicaid - health care for lower-income people, especially in rural areas. Ditto for food stamps in other parts of the social safety net. So Republicans are saying they're doing nothing but cutting off people who are too lazy to work - fraud and abuse. But we will see if you can really save a trillion dollars with that rhetoric. There will be people who get sick or injured and have no access to care. They will show up in emergency rooms and there'll be no place to send the bill. And then there's food stamps, which is the same story.
SIMON: Midterm elections are still more than a year away. Will the effects of this bill become the driving issue?
ELVING: Past history and lots of pundits say yes, but much will depend on events. There will be a ferocious messaging war over this bill. A lot of the really painful cuts will be delayed until after the midterm election. Every effort has been made to enable the Republican members who voted for this to survive 2026. And by then, who knows what the most pressing issues will be?
SIMON: Let me ask about tariffs because the 90-day pause President Trump announced back in April is set to expire next week. He now threatens there could be even higher tariffs on countries that don't strike deals. Is this negotiating strategy or a genuine policy?
ELVING: Trump is going to be feeling what the first President Bush used to call the big mo - the momentum from a big win that can leverage others. So he immediately shifts focus to tariffs and says he got a deal with the U.K. He got one with Vietnam. He may have one - it's kind of on again, off again with China. So he tells the rest of the world, come to the table in the next few weeks. Let's make a deal. And, oh, yes, if you don't, your tariffs will explode. Right now, he says he's sending out individual letters to scores of our trading partners, setting his terms with these enormous tariff threats hanging over their heads and setting a new de facto deadline of August 1.
SIMON: And this week, President Trump spoke to both Russia's President Putin, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and says he's not happy with Putin. But at the same time, he has cut off some weapons to Ukraine. What's the situation now, and any progress towards a ceasefire?
ELVING: Not clear whether there's any progress towards a ceasefire or not. Trump came away from these meetings this week more positive about the talks he had had with Zelenskyy than the talks he had had with Putin. That's a change from what we've seen in the past, where the pressure seemed to be going in the other direction. But is it real or is it a head fake?
Russia has mounted the heaviest airstrikes yet on Ukraine, especially on Kyiv, just this past week. The weapons we are holding back - they're being held up in Poland - are meant to defend against just such attacks. So if you care about what happens to Ukraine, you have to ask, why suspend these defensive weapons deliveries right now? And just what are Trump and Putin saying in these phone calls they have? Does Iran enter into that discussion? It's hard not to notice that while the U.S. has held back some of its support for Ukraine, Russia has also stood aside while the U.S. bombs military facilities in Iran. Are these facts related in any way?
SIMON: NPR's Ron Elving raising quite a question at the end. Thanks so much for being with us, Ron.
ELVING: Thank you, Scott. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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