From an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, to President Joe Biden stepping down from re-election, the last few weeks have rocked the political landscape.
To get an idea of how recent events may affect voting in mid-Michigan, WKAR’s Melorie Begay spoke with Dante Chinni. He’s the director of the American Communities Project, a project aimed at analyzing communities through data, election results and polling.
Full Transcript
Melorie Begay: Following calls from Democratic officials and voters, President Joe Biden stepped down as the party's nominee. He's now endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. How significant of an impact do you think this will have on voters?
Dante Chinni: This is a big moment. I mean, you're talking about replacing the would-be Democratic nominee with somebody different in mid-July. It's never happened before. So, is it dramatic? Can it really change this race? Absolutely.
Begay: Do you think Biden voters will naturally flow to support Harris? Are there any others she can pick up?
Chinni: So, my guess is most of the Biden voters will go to Harris. That's my assumption. She may lose a couple. Like there may be older voters who aren't especially enthused about her. But I also think she's got the potential to pick up some voters that Biden had lost a lot of enthusiasm among some sectors of the electorate, particularly younger people. And I think Harris has a real opportunity there.
Begay: In 2020, young voters, especially here in mid-Michigan, were an important part of electing President Joe Biden, is the reason is there any recent data or polling showing how youth might turn out with this new nominee?
Chinni: So with a new nominee, we don't know yet, we do know that Biden's numbers were, I mean, for a Democratic candidate, were abysmal. He was in Michigan, the polling we saw in Michigan, he was narrowly ahead among 18 to 29-year-old voters. That's not where a Democrat should be. He won them by more than 20 points in 2020.
I think that there's a real opportunity for Harris to try to reignite this. And remember, I do think it's going to end up being a close election, every vote matters. Democrats need every part of their kind of constituency if they're going to do this, and that that's younger voters, and I think Harris could make real difference there.
Begay: For Republican voters, does the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump affect how they're going to choose to vote?
Chinni: The assassination attempt was terrifying and awful, but I don't know. I think it locked in support behind Trump. But I don't know if anybody saw the assassination attempt and [thought], I wasn't sure if I was going to vote for Donald Trump before but now I am. It really kind of reinforced the image of who Donald Trump was, and it rallied his base. But he already had a lot of enthusiasm anyway, I think.
I'm not sure ultimately. It's a horrific event. Like, ultimately, what's the net effect of it? I'm not really sure. I think Trump's voters are Trump's voters. I think they're with him come hell or high water and they're with him.
Begay: Trump recently picked J.D. Vance as his running mate. Do you think this helps his campaign?
Chinni: I have to say like myself and in talking to people I know it's a bit of a head scratcher as a selection just because I know there's this idea that like he'll help in the Midwest. This is the man who wrote Hillbilly Elegy. Are there parts of the Midwest where that message resonates? Yeah, there is. But does that message resonate in Detroit? Does it resonate in Lansing? Does it resonate in Chicago? I don't think so.
And the other thing I'd say about Vance is he is untested. He's a political neophyte. He's only been in the Senate for not even two years yet. He's going to have to grow into the job. I have seen the first I've heard a little bit of the first couple of speeches he's given. He's not a natural at this. Now, he may grow into it over the course of the campaign. I’m not sure he brings a lot. Vance really looks like Trump doubling down on kind of social conservatism, another white male, younger, white male, but trying to reach kind of rural voters, which are really kind of the core of Trump's constituency.
Begay: I want to go back to the youth voters a little bit. How important is that youth vote going to be and who do you think is most likely to pick up those votes?
Chinni: Look, Harris at 59 is the youngest Democratic nominee since 2012. 59 right now, is a youth movement in presidential politics. That's kind of crazy to say, but it's true. But I do think that like with Harris in there, there is an opportunity for Democrats, if they choose to do this, to make this about an idea of going to the future versus going forward going toward the past. Which is Trump is making America great again, we're going to go back to where America was, as opposed to trying to push the conversation forward.
Younger voters in particular aren't really interested in going back to where things were, I don't think as much. They're much more interested, I think about the future, we younger voters, let's embrace the future. That can be something that can fire them up. I mean, the young voters I've talked to on campus here have not been especially inspired by this campaign up to now. We'll see when campus is full again this fall, how things look and feel, but it feels like there's an opportunity, at least for Harris to kind of ramp up support.
Begay: Dante Chinni is the director of the American Communities Project at Michigan State. Thank you for joining me, Dante.
Chinni: Thank you.
