As polls and political pundits work to predict the still evolving presidential race, an expert in Michigan says if the vote is close, one group “could potentially decide the state”. But getting the state’s fastest-growing voting bloc to turn out may be the biggest challenge for political parties.
To understand how Michigan's 400,000 eligible Latinx voters could be pivotal in winning the state, WKAR’s Michelle Jokisch Polo spoke with Michigan State University political analyst, Eric Gonzalez Jeunke, who specializes in the Latinx vote.
Interview Highlights
On how important the Latinx vote is for the general elections
It depends on how close the race is. It could potentially decide the state, and yet that depends on whether the parties do the work to mobilize and get Latinos who aren't registered registered and out to vote. If the race is close, the Latino vote could be extremely important, and the Democratic and Republican parties might say, "Boy, we really should have done more work to mobilize voters in Michigan, because we could have won."
On how political parties are engaging the Latinx community
I haven't seen a lot of engagement for this voting bloc. What they should have been doing and what I haven't seen a lot of are registration drives. One of the gaps for Latino voters nationally, and then, of course, here in Michigan, is not just turning out to vote, but being registered to vote. The gap is really in getting individuals registered to vote. So that requires a lot of work, that requires the parties caring about getting these voters.
On the young Latinx vote
Harris has seemed to have activated particularly younger voters' enthusiasm about this race. Paying attention, getting excited and that excitement turns into actual voting. it's still a little bit early to see what the overall effect of this is, but the early signs indicate that a change at the top of the ticket may reverse some of this kind of enthusiasm, lack of enthusiasm that we saw in the primaries, and particularly for younger Latinos.
Interview Transcript
Arjun Thakkar: As polls and political pundits work to predict the still evolving presidential race… an expert in Michigan says if the vote is close, one group “could potentially decide the state”.
Erick Gonzalez Jeunke is a political analyst specializing in Latinx politics at Michigan State University. He says Michigan’s 400,000 eligible Latinos voters could hold the key to winning the state… if the campaigns reach out to them.
WKAR’s Michelle Jokisch Polo spoke with Gonzalez Jeunke about what he says is the biggest challenge right now… getting eligible Latinos to register to vote.
Michelle Jokisch Polo: In 2020 Joe Biden won the presidential election in Michigan by fewer than 200,000 votes, with more than 300,000 eligible Latino voters in Michigan, this group could prove vital in the state. How are parties engaging this voting bloc? If they are.
Gonzalez Jeunke: I haven't seen a lot of engagement for specifically this voting block. What that means is what they should have been doing and what I haven't seen a lot of, but a lot of this happens behind the scenes, obviously, are registration drives. One of the gaps for Latino voters nationally, and then, of course, here in Michigan, is not just turning out to vote, but being registered to vote. A large part of that gap, so about 70% of eligible voters are even registered to vote. And so that's part of the big gap. I mean, this is one of the lingering things, if you account for that, once you just look at registered voters, Latinos turn out at about the same rates as other groups, but the gap is really in getting individuals registered to vote. So that requires a lot of work, that requires the parties caring about these voters. Now when we get into this part of the season, a lot of the parties nationally, in both here in Michigan, either leave that up to other groups, or they say, 'look we can't, you know, we have limited resources. We can't go out and mobilize people who aren't registered'. So a lot of that work takes place kind of in the years and the months that lead up to these elections.
Jokisch Polo: This time around, it seems that there may have been fewer young democrats showing up to vote like they did in 2020, in the state primary election. Why do you think this is and tell us about the young Latino vote in November?
Gonzalez Jeunke: I think it's probably due to a not very competitive set of federal races, and then earlier in the year, a not very competitive presidential primary. But it's also just an enthusiasm gap. We're right in the middle of seeing this change with the change at the top of the ticket from Biden to Harris. I was just looking at some polling data today nationally, and it's happening here in the Midwest and in Michigan is that Harris has seemed to have activated, particularly younger voters, enthusiasm about this race, so paying attention, getting excited and that excitement turns into actual voting. It can turn into knocking on doors. It can turn into working for the campaign. So it's still a little bit early to see what kind of the overall effect of this is, but the early signs indicate that a change at the top of the ticket may reverse some of this kind of enthusiasm, lack of enthusiasm that we saw in the primaries, and particularly for younger Latinos.
Jokisch Polo: How important do you think the Latino voting bloc is for the state's general election?
Gonzales Juenke: It depends how close the race is. It could potentially decide the state, and yet that depends on if the parties do the work to mobilize and get, you know, Latinos who aren't registered, registered to get folks to turn out. So, you know, unfortunately, we won't know until after the election. And it comes down to how close is Michigan actually going to be? It's looking a lot less close than it did a month ago. But things could change, and we could go back to a really close race, if I had to put money on it right now, that it's probably not going to be as close as as as we thought it was a month ago. But if it's close, the Latino vote could be really, really important, and the Democratic Republican Party could say, 'Boy, we really should have done more work to mobilize Latino voters in Michigan, because we could have taken it'. And I think they would, both parties would say the same thing about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Thakkar: That was Eric Gonzalez Jeunke..political scientist at Michigan State University speaking with WKAR’s Michelle Jokisch Polo.
